Imagine not checking the weather before packing to go away on a trip or not checking the traffic before beginning your rush hour drive home. These types of actions, and the forecasts that sit behind them, have become ubiquitous in our day-to-day life. But in other areas, often where much more is at stake, decisions are driven by gut feeling or relying on what happened in the past. Business forecasting is one of these.
Many businesses rely on historic trends, simple rules of thumb or hunches when estimating their sales over the next days, weeks or quarters. These types of approaches suffer from many sources of error – they are backward looking, suffer from human biases, and struggle to pick up emerging trends or changes in behaviour.
Inaccurate forecasts have large knock-on effects – staff are scheduled badly, stock holdings are poorly planned, and customer service is worse than it could be.
Over the past few years, Predictive Insights has developed a forecasting approach that combines economics, machine learning, and behavioural science to make highly granular and accurate forecasts.
We’ve also worked with businesses to structure processes to extract value from these improved forecasts. The improvements in forecasting are large – in some cases forecast errors fall to a third of what they were, and the resulting savings and improvements in efficiency are big too.
If you think we can help you to improve the accuracy of your forecasts, please fill in the form below.